The Domestication History of Cotton (Gossypium)

Cotton (Gossypium sp.) is one of the most important and earliest domesticated non-food crops in the world. Used primarily for its fiber, cotton was domesticated independently in both the Old and New Worlds. The word cotton originated from the Arabic term al qutn, which became in Spanish algodà ³n and cotton in English. Key Takeaways: Domestication of Cotton Cotton is one of the earliest domesticated non-food crops, independently domesticated at least four different times in four different parts of the world.  The first cotton domesticate was from the wild tree form in Pakistan or Madagascar at least 6,000 years ago; the next oldest was domesticated in Mexico about 5,000 years ago.  Cotton processing, taking the cotton bolls and making them into fibers, is a global technique; spinning those fibers into strings for weaving was anciently accomplished by the use of spindle whorls in the New World and spinning wheels in the Old World.   Nearly all the cotton produced in the world today is the New World species Gossypium hirsutum, but before the 19th century, several species were grown on different continents. The four domesticated Gossypium species of the Malvaceae family are G. arboreum L., domesticated in the Indus Valley of Pakistan and India; G. herbaceum L. from Arabia and Syria; G. hirsutum from Mesoamerica; and G. barbadense from South America. All four domestic species and their wild relatives are shrubs or small trees which are traditionally grown as summer crops; domesticated versions are highly drought- and salt-tolerant crops that grow well in marginal, arid environments. Old World cotton has short, coarse, weak fibers that are today primarily used for stuffing and quilt making; New World cotton has higher production demands but provides longer and stronger fibers and higher yields. Making Cotton Wild cotton is photo-period sensitive--in other words, the plant begins to germinate when the day length reaches a certain point. Wild cotton plants are perennial and their form is sprawling. Domestic versions are short, compact annual shrubs which do not respond to changes in day length--thats an advantage if the plant grows in places with cool winters because both wild and domestic kinds of cotton are frost-intolerant. Cotton fruits are capsules or bolls which contain several seeds covered by two kinds of fiber: short ones called fuzz and long ones called lint. Only the lint fibers are useful for making textiles, and the domestic plants have larger seeds covered with comparatively abundant lint. Cotton is traditionally harvested by hand, and then the cotton is ginned--processed to separate the seeds from the fiber. After the ginning process, the cotton fibers are batted with a wooden bow to make them more flexible and carded with a hand comb to separate the fibers before spinning. Spinning twists the individual fibers into a yarn, which can be completed by hand with a spindle and spindle whorl (in the New World) or with a spinning wheel (developed in the Old World). Old World Cotton Cotton was first domesticated in the Old World about 7,000 years ago; the earliest archaeological evidence for cotton use is from the Neolithic occupation of Mehrgarh, in the Kachi Plain of Balochistan, Pakistan, in the sixth millennium BC. Cultivation of G. arboreum began in the Indus Valley of India and Pakistan, and then eventually spread over Africa and Asia, whereas G. herbaceum was first cultivated in Arabia and Syria. The two main species, G. arboreum and G. herbaceum, are genetically very different and probably diverged well before domestication. Specialists agree that the wild progenitor of G. herbaceum was an African species, whereas the ancestor of G. arboreum is still unknown. Regions of the possible origin of the G. arboreum wild progenitor are likely Madagascar or the Indus Valley, where the most ancient evidence for cultivated cotton has been found. Gossypium arboreum Abundant archaeological evidence exists for the initial domestication and use of G. arboreum, by the Harappan (aka Indus Valley) civilization in Pakistan. Mehrgarh, the earliest agricultural village in the Indus Valley, holds multiple lines of evidence of cotton seeds and fibers beginning about 6000 BP. At Mohenjo-Daro, fragments of cloth and cotton textiles have been dated to the fourth millennium BCE, and archaeologists agree that most of the trade that made the city grow was based on cotton exportation. Raw material and finished cloth were exported from South Asia into Dhuweila in eastern Jordan by 6450–5000 years ago, and to Maikop (Majkop or Maykop) in the northern Caucasus by 6000 BP. Cotton fabric has been found at Nimrud in Iraq (8th–7th centuries BCE), Arjan in Iran (late 7th–early 6th centuries BCE) and Kerameikos in Greece (5th century BCE). According to Assyrian records of Sennacherib (705–681 BCE), cotton was grown in the royal botanical gardens at Nineveh, but cool winters there would have made large-scale production impossible. Because G. arboreum is a tropical and subtropical plant, cotton agriculture did not spread outside the Indian subcontinent until thousands of years after its domestication. Cotton cultivation is first seen in the Persian Gulf at Qalat al-Bahrain (ca 600–400 BCE), and in North Africa at Qasr Ibrim, Kellis and al-Zerqa between the 1st and 4th centuries CE. Recent investigations at Karatepe in Uzbekistan have found cotton production dated between ca. 300–500 CE. G. arboreum is thought to have been introduced into China as an ornamental plant about 1,000 years ago. Cotton may have been grown in the Xinjiang (China) province cities of Turfan and Khotan by the 8th century CE. Cotton was finally adapted to grow in more temperate climates by the Islamic Agricultural Revolution, and between 900–1000 CE, a boom in cotton production spread into Persia, Southwest Asia, North Africa and the Mediterranean Basin. Gossypium herbaceum G. herbaceum is much less well-known than G. arboreum. Traditionally it is known to grow in African open forests and grasslands. Characteristics of its wild species are a taller plant, compared to the domesticated shrubs, smaller fruit, and thicker seed coats. Unfortunately, no clear domesticated remains of G. herbaceum have been recovered from archaeological contexts. However, the distribution of its closest wild progenitor suggests a northward distribution toward North Africa, and the Near East. New World Cotton Among the American species, G. hirsutum was apparently cultivated first in Mexico, and G. barbadense later in Peru. However, a minority of researchers believe, alternatively, that the earliest type of cotton was introduced into Mesoamerica as an already domesticated form of G. barbadense from coastal Ecuador and Peru. Whichever story ends up to be correct, cotton was one of the first non-food plants domesticated by the prehistoric inhabitants of the Americas. In the Central Andes, especially in the north and central coasts of Peru, cotton was part of a fishing economy and a marine-based lifestyle. People used cotton to make fishing nets and other textiles. Cotton remains have been recovered in many sites on the coast especially in residential middens. Gossypium hirsutum (Upland cotton) The oldest evidence of Gossypium hirsutum in Mesoamerica comes from the Tehuacan valley and has been dated between 3400 and 2300 BCE. In different caves of the region, archaeologists affiliated to the project of Richard MacNeish found remains of fully domesticated examples of this cotton. Recent studies have compared bolls and cotton seeds retrieved from excavations in Guila Naquitz Cave, Oaxaca, with living examples of wild and cultivated G. hirsutum punctatum growing along the east coast of Mexico. Additional genetic studies (Coppens dEeckenbrugge and Lacape 2014) support the earlier results, indicating that G. hirsutum was likely originally domesticated in the Yucatà ¡n Peninsula. Another possible center of domestication for G. hirsutum is the Caribbean. In different eras and among different Mesoamerican cultures, cotton was a highly demanded good and a precious exchange item. Maya and Aztec merchants traded cotton for other luxury items, and nobles adorned themselves with woven and dyed mantles of the precious material. Aztec kings often offered cotton products to noble visitors as gifts and to army leaders as payment. Gossypium barbadense (Pima cotton) G. barbadense cultivars are known for their production of high-quality fiber and called variously Pima, Egyptian, or Sea Island cotton. The first clear evidence of domesticated Pima cotton comes from the Ancà ³n-Chillà ³n area of the central coast of Peru. The sites in this area show the domestication process began during the Preceramic period, beginning about 2500 BCE. By 1000 BCE the size and shape of Peruvian cotton bolls were indistinguishable from todays modern cultivars of G. barbadense. Cotton production began on the coasts, but eventually moved inland, facilitated by the construction of canal irrigation. By the Initial Period, sites such as Huaca Prieta contained domestic cotton 1,500 to 1,000 years before pottery and maize cultivation. Unlike in the old world, cotton in Peru was initially part of subsistence practices, used for fishing and hunting nets, as well as textiles, clothing and storage bags. Sources Bouchaud, Charlà ¨ne, Margareta Tengberg, and Patricia Dal Prà  . Cotton Cultivation and Textile Production in the Arabian Peninsula During Antiquity; the Evidence from Madà ¢Ã¢â‚¬â„¢in Sà ¢lih (Saudi Arabia) and Qal’at Al-Bahrain (Bahrain). Vegetation History and Archaeobotany 20.5 (2011): 405–17. Print.Brite, Elizabeth Baker, and John M. Marston. Environmental Change, Agricultural Innovation, and the Spread of Cotton Agriculture in the Old World. Journal of Anthropological Archaeology 32.1 (2013): 39–53. Print.Coppens dEeckenbrugge, Geo, and Jean–Marc Lacape. Distribution and Differentiation of Wild, Feral, and Cultivated Populations of Perennial Upland Cotton ( PLoS ONE 9.9 (2014): e107458. Print.Gossypium hirsutum L.) in Mesoamerica and the Caribbean.Du, Xiongming, et al. Resequencing of 243 Diploid Cotton Accessions Based on an Updated a Genome Identifies the Genetic Basis of Key Agronomic Traits. Nature Genetics 50.6 (2018): 796–802. Print .Moulherat, Christophe, et al. First Evidence of Cotton at Neolithic Mehrgarh, Pakistan: Analysis of Mineralized Fibres from a Copper Bead. Journal of Archaeological Science 29.12 (2002): 1393–401. Print.Nixon, Sam, Mary Murray, and Dorian Fuller. Plant Use at an Early Islamic Merchant Town in the West African Sahel: The Archaeobotany of Essouk–Tadmakka (Mali). Vegetation History and Archaeobotany 20.3 (2011): 223–39. Print.Reddy, Umesh K., et al. Genome-Wide Divergence, Haplotype Distribution and Population Demographic Histories for Gossypium Hirsutum and Gossypium Barbadense as Revealed by Genome–Anchored SNPs. Scientific Reports 7 (2017): 41285. Print.Renny–Byfield, Simon, et al. Independent Domestication of Two Old World Cotton Species. Genome Biology and Evolution 8.6 (2016): 1940–47. Print.Wang, Maojun, et al. Asymmetric Subgenome Selection and Cis-Regulatory Divergence During Cotton Domestication. Nature Genetics 49 (2017): 579. Print .Zhang, Shu–Wen, et al. Mapping of Fiber Quality Qtls Reveals Useful Variation and Footprints of Cotton Domestication Using Introgression Lines. Scientific Reports 6 (2016): 31954. Print. Updated by K. Kris Hirst

Global Warming And Its Effect On The World - 1886 Words

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Increased temperatures are as a result of the accumulation of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide, water vapour, nitrous oxide and methane gas in the atmosphere. The greenhouse effect is a natural system that regulates the temperatures on Earth by trapping the sun s heat to keep the temperature on the surface warm enough to support life. However, increasing levels of the greenhouse gases as a result of industrialization and rising population continue to increase the temperatures on the Earth s surface causing various physical, environmental, climatic and ecological changes onShow MoreRelatedThe Effects Of Global Warming On The World1235 Words   |  5 PagesThey may not be feeling the effects of global warming at the moment, but in time it will become a more widespread issue. The effects of global warming are hard to refute, and there is endless evidence of this gro wing problem in our world today. 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The result is global warming with the weather patterns shifting and glaciers melting, the world we know today is slowly dissipating as these changes bring about dramatic consequences for all on the planet including

Anselm’s Monologion Free Essays

Anselm’s Monologion is at first a detailed expansion of his more famous ontology – the proof of the existence of God – as expressed elsewhere. In this proof God is first equated with the most perfect being, and then it is demonstrated that such a being necessarily exists. The Monologion is concerned more with the nature of the most perfect being, and what else can be predicated about it, in relation to itself, and to created beings. We will write a custom essay sample on Anselm’s Monologion or any similar topic only for you Order Now The same line of argument is followed, where the oneness and the perfection of the Supreme Being are emphasized, but after a point we notice that the effort is diverted into explaining the Christian doctrine of the Trinity, so that God is said to be three persons in one substance, and yet indivisibly one. It needs to be remembered that Anselm does not attempt to ‘prove’ the doctrine of the Trinity. Therefore the latter part of the Monologion is really persuasive rather than demonstrative. The aim is to convince us of the reasonableness of the doctrine of the Trinity. It will be instructive to recall Anselm’s ontology here. In order to divert any suspicion of sophism, Anselm introduces the argument as taking place in the head of a fool. This fool denies the existence of a Supreme and Perfect Being. But when he tries to imagine something of the kind in his head, he cannot. Whatever great thing he imagines, it is not final, because the mind soars inexorably past it and imagines something even greater. The mind tries to grasp perfection, but cannot do so. Anselm argues that if there were no perfect being, then the mind chases after nothing, which cannot be so. So there must be a thing called Perfection, at least as an idea. Next he supposes the case where the Perfection is only in the mind and not in reality. If this were the case then it would not be the most perfect thing, because being only in the mind, the mind would then try to imagine something even greater than it. Therefore the Perfect Being has real existence. The Monologion opens with a variation on this ontology, postulating that all things that are good, or great, or virtuous in any way, are so due to the goodness, greatness or virtue of the Supreme Being, which must necessarily exist as the abode or perfection and being whereby everything else derives its qualities and its existence. It then tries to fix the nature of this Supreme Being, and concludes that whatever qualities it possesses it does so by itself, from itself, and through itself. And at the same time all created beings possess their qualities and their existence by, from and through the Supreme Being. So that a person can be said to be just, which implies a comparison. He is just because he has more justice in him then the next person. But with God there is no comparison, so that He is Justice itself. He is said to exist in all places and in all times, and this sense exists in the truest sense. In comparison all created being can be said not to exist at all, and at best that they exist in a limited sense. They are mutable, so that whatever existence they have is fleeting – nothing is ever what it was a moment ago. Therefore, the Supreme Being not only brings them into existence, but sustains their existence too. These are things demonstrated in the first part of the Monologion, and all the arguments follow the same pattern as in the ontology, i. e. it employs the oneness and perfection of God. But then Anselm comes to consider the Expression of the Supreme Being. All created existence is but a manifestation of the Expression. We must next consider whether this Expression is also a creature. But it cannot be so, because all creatures come to existence through the Expression, and the Expression cannot come into being through itself. If it is not a creature then it can only consubstantial with the Supreme Being. Here it is established that the Expression of the Supreme Being cannot be anything distinct from it. It must therefore be sufficient in itself, and need not depend of created beings, having existence before creating things came into being, and even after the final dissolution of things. So we need to find a way to describe the Expression to relation to God alone. Anselm describes it as the understanding of God. It can be seen as a means by which God comes to understand Himself. It is plain that God cannot be in the dark about his own nature, says Anselm, and he points out that even the human mind understands itself. The mind is conscious of itself, can remember itself, can reason with itself. This is but the mind understanding itself. If the mind can understand itself to some extent, there is no doubt that the Supreme Being understands itself, and does so not partially, but wholly. It is indeed the aspect we know as divine wisdom. The next step is to equate the Expression with the Word. In truth, an analogy is here being drawn between â€Å"words†, which are the units of human language, and the essence of expression. In a word is the image of the thing as we sense it. Therefore, in words are the expressions of all things, and as words all things are represented in the human mind. There are, no doubt, other carriers of expression, for example, pictures, sculptures, tastes, smells, etc. But the word is the purest and most powerful medium. It is the building block of language, and thus is the bearer of culture and civilization. We have many words, and these exist so that all things may be represented in the mind, and even then it is inadequate to bring the whole diverse splendor of the universe to us. Anselm asks the question whether the divine expression employs many words. But quickly demonstrates that such diversity would detract from the perfection of the divine expression. If the Expression is one, and the word is made consubstantial to it, then the word is also one, and this is the Word. It is the supreme image of the divine, but it also forms an identity with the divine. From it is derived all other words, and indeed all other images. Since all things are created in the image of the divine, the Word is indeed the source of all Creation. Anselm thus far has arrived at the Biblical assertion, as found in the Gospel of John: â€Å"In the beginning was the Word, and the Word was with God, and the Word was God† (John 1:1). Anselm points out a possible difficulty at this point. If it is true that the Word brings all things into existence in the manner of lending to them its own image, then it must be somehow like the things which are created, being in its own image. He considers the three mutually exhaustive cases. Either the likeness is (1) exact, (2) partial, or (3) non-existent. It is obvious that there cannot be an exact likeness, because created things are mutable, and the Word is not. A partial likeness implies that some aspects of the creating being do not derive from the Word, which is also plainly false. If there no likeness at all then there is no creation either. Anselm suggests that we come over this difficulty by using the comparison the other way. This means that we should compare created beings to the Word, and not the other way round. All created things must compare to the Word is some degree. And the degree to which they do compare is the degree of their existence. To elaborate on the theme of ‘degrees of existence’, Anselm asks us to consider the gradated nature of all created things. The rational human mind is certainly superior to the sensual human body; the sensual animals are certainly superior to the non-sensual plants; the sentient plants are superior to the non-sentient and material substances. Each created being is an effulgence of the Word, and it must necessarily be so, because the Word is the expression of the divine. But there seems to be a gradation that rises to make the image of the divine truer and truer. When we arrive at the rational human mind we have self-reflexive understanding, which is an attribute we apply properly only to the divine mind. But then, human reason does not comprehend itself finally, and neither can it come to an understanding of what it sees as God and the universe. On the other hand, the Spirit that is God comprehends itself fully, and this through the means of the Word. Therefore we must conclude that the human mind is an effulgence of the Word, but it is not the Word itself. Through a multiplicity of ‘words’ the human mind can grapple with the infinite expanse that it finds before it, and can come to know of the existence of the Word, thus of God, though it cannot know the Word itself. We may assert that the rational mind is the greatest among all created things, and therefore bears the greatest likeness with the Word, and consequently possess more reality that anything else in the phenomenal world. Though none can deny that it is a created, and thus limited thing. This much Anselm attempts to prove. Much of the latter part of the Monologion is not proof but suggestion. The starting point of such suggestion is when Anselm insists that the Expression be construed as something distinct from the Supreme Being. Having already proved that there cannot be any distinction, Anselm seems to be taking liberties now. He wants to be reasonable instead of rational. It is as if he is encountering God as a person instead of a matter of logic. In the sense that we would not mistake the expression of a person with the person himself, so Anselm describes the Word as distinct from the Supreme Being, And further on he will give the description a more personal character by saying that the Word in begotten by the Supreme Being in the way that the son is begotten of the father. He is at pains to point out, though, that it is an â€Å"ineffable plurality. To be sure, ineffable—because although necessity compels that they be two, what two they are cannot at all be expressed† (Anselm 53). In the end it is an article of faith that he is espousing. To think in this way is to gain a glimpse into the deepest mysteries of the divine, and this is what increases devotion and strengthens faith. Once we admit two distinct beings in God, there issues by necessity a third, with is Love, which is that by which the Son is united with Father and the Father with the Son. This is the doctrine of the Trinity, that which Anselm has been aiming at from the beginning. We draw the following conclusion. In the Monologion it is Anselm’s task to prove the existence of God and to elaborate on the perfection of His nature. The proofs that he provides for the existence and perfection of God are thorough and irrefutable. He elaborates on the Expression of God as the source of all created existence. But even though he establishes that, in a strictly logical sense, we cannot apply predicates to God, he nevertheless goes on espouse the Christian doctrine of the Trinity. He is careful to point out that this latter assertion is not a proof, but is rather the most reasonable predicate that can be applied to God. How to cite Anselm’s Monologion, Papers

Fourier Analysis of Time Series †Free Samples to Students

Question: Discuss about the Fourier Analysis of Time Series. Answer: Introduction Registration of a vehicle signifies the legal possession of the vehicle by the owner. It is the proof of ownership of the vehicle and the transfer of responsibility which comes along with owning a vehicle, to the owner. Here in this report I am going to put my focus on registrations of cars because this is a category of vehicle which is most common and is used by the public of New Zealand in larger numbers as compared to other road vehicles. The plots in the following section will commensurate the fact that the number of car registrations in New Zealand has increased since 2006 till end of 2016. A major factor for this is the population of the country. Due to immigration and rising economics of the country the population is increasing which demands more of cars on roads for commutation. With increasing income levels and standards of living in New Zealand people tend to buy their own cars and the need for public transport pushes the sales and hence the registrations of cars. With this investigation, I would like to see the relation between population growth and the increase in the car registration in New Zealand. It is important to establish the research question for any type of research study. For this research study, we want to study the time series analysis regarding the process of car registration over the time period of last ten years. We want to analyze some key parameters of the time series analysis by using the data of car registrations in the New Zealand. We have established the following research questions for this time series analysis. Is there any significant increase in the total number of registrations of cars since last ten years? Is there any significant trend found in the car registrations over the past ten years? Is there a continuous growth in the process of car registrations? For answering these questions we have to use the time series analysis for the data set regarding the car registrations in the New Zealand. It is important to draw the time series plot for the given data for understanding the nature of time series data. By plotting the given time series we understand the different types of trends appeared in the time series data, variation pattern along with time parameter T, seasonal variations, etc. Time series plot plays an important role in understanding the particular pattern of the different variables under study. This time series analysis gives an idea for the future prediction. For the given time series data for car registrations from the year 2006 to 2016, the time series plot is given as below: The above time series plot shows the upward increasing movement. There is a continuous increment in the process of car registrations with time parameter. Also, some small seasonal variation appeared in the given data. For the year 2009, there is downward movement of the time series. The reasons for this downward movement could be identified by studying different associated social and economic parameters for the year 2009. Although there is an appearance of one time downward movement of the time series, but it shows continuous upward movement. Here in the above chart the dependent variable is the number of car registrations made and the independent variable is the period 2006- 2016 each year broken in quarters. The number of cars registered is plotted against quarterly periods from 2006-2016. From the above chart, we see an overall rising trend in the number of car registrations owing to increasing number of cars bought by the people. However there have been two major decline periods in the car registrations from January 2008 to October 2008 and July 2016 to October 2016. From 2006 to 2016 there has been nearly a hike of 23% in the number of cars registered from 2200000 in 2006 to 2700000 in 2016, approximately. The dip may have been due to increasing number of road accidents which may have decreased the incentives for the public to buy own cars. Other reasons could have been increase in the prices of the cars or their complementary products such as gas or may be the cost of obtaining a registration may have surged during these periods. The general increase can be owned to increasing population of New Zealand and rising income levels which make people buy their own cars instead of using public transport for commuting. Time series features - description of seasonality On the left, we have a graph of individual seasonal effects and on the right, is the estimated seasonal effects. The seasonal plot for cars shows for each month the trend in each year. We can see that there are troughs in the July and August months especially in 2009, 2015 and 2016. Also, there was a falling pattern in the early years 2006 2010 in the month of February. The line for the year 2010 shows a stark falling scenario from the month of March which is not the general trend in the other years. In the later part of the year, each year we see a sudden spike in the car registrations. This may be because of the festive season in December and the New Year which make people buy new cars for themselves and therefore increase in the number of registrations. Therefore, we can conclude that the number of car registrations fall in the first half of the year after which it starts to rise and achieves a very high level of registration monthly during the end of each year. From the estimate d seasonal effect graph the number of car registrations fall below the average in the month of April and again go above the average during the November month. The overall effect of the surge in November and December is higher than the combined fall during the February to July period. In the upper part of the chart we see that the green line represents the submission of trend line and the seasonal variation. It shows the expected pattern when the trend line is adjusted for the seasonality in the number of car registrations. The residuals demonstrate the difference between the trend and seasonal line and the original raw data. It is the component of variations which is not explained by the trend line. The green line also represents the expected values if the seasonal patterns remain the same every year. From the thumb rule of finding the outliers in the graph we see that the dip in the October 2008 quarter lies outside the boundary of 50000. This abnormal dip may be due to the rise in the prices of cars, car products and/or the registration fee or increase in the number of accidents. The average car registrations rise from over 2200000 to approximately 2700000. There is nearly a rise of 23% overall. Towards the extremes of the residuals we see that there are greate r fluctuations as compared to the middle section. This suggests that the rise in the car registrations from the 2015 2016 period has been greater than the trend and there is little explanation of that surge captured by the seasonality and trend. Forecast - forecast plot and table The method of Holt-Winters for the prediction purpose deals with the both trend and seasonal variations. There are additive and multiplicative versions for this method. The use of additive or multiplicative methods is depends on the characteristics of the particular time series. The Holt-Winter methods for analysis of time series is nothing but the extension of the single exponential smoothing and double exponential smoothing. We know that the moving average methods are not applicable at all time and we need to use advanced analysis of given time series. Holt-Winters additive time series plot is given as below: In the above graph, we see the predictions and the bandwidth of the car registrations expected during the following years. The dark red line shows the predicted values of the number of car registrations whereas the zone shows the range within which the actual registration is expected to limit itself. Any value within the band is explainable whereas outside the band would be majorly be due to some reason not captured in seasonality and trend. Based on the predictions I believe that the values of car registrations will be in the range of 2600000 to 2900000 approximately. From the chart, we can infer that the fit of the model is poor in the quarters during the years 2008-2010 and again during 2015-2016 because of significant differences between the fitted line and the raw data line. On the contrary the fitted model accurately captures the actual during the 2006-2007 and end 2013 till early 2015 periods. Conclusion From the model fitting and the time series analysis we can infer an increasing trend in the number of car registrations with the years. It is very logical that the with increasing population of New Zealand the number of car registrations also increase owing to a greater demand for cars and greater demand for better standard of living with increasing employment and income levels. We also conclude that the major chunk of the rise in car registrations take place in the end of a year when there is greater increase in the car registrations than the fall experienced during the mid-quarters. With knowledge of increasing demand for cars the car industry and other related industries can plan their production levels and pricings to meet the demand and increase the supply. This information will help in better planning both at corporate and government levels. 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